Europe facing AI “polycrisis” as superintelligence “looms on the horizon”
Researchers warn the Continent is “lagging behind” global competitors at a critical juncture in history.
As the crucible of the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions, Europe was once at the epicentre of global innovation.
Today, the Continent’s most famous son and an ancient rival civilisation have left the Old World choking in their dust.
Now the severity of the situation has been hammered home in a new report called "A European Model for Artificial Intelligence" by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Research and Innovation.
“Europe is lagging behind in the global AI landscape,” it warned. “Despite having a massive AI talent pool and strong fundamental research capacity, Europe has struggled to keep pace with the United States and China.
“The lack of a unified digital single market has hindered Europe's ability to lead in internet applications and now in AI, with far-reaching consequences. This failure to lead in AI not only has significant economic implications but also limits Europe's ability to ensure economic security, reduce dependencies on its main competitors, and direct AI development towards broader economic, societal, and environmental goals."
What went wrong in Europe?
Although Europe has been a laggard for quite some time, the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 marked the moment the AI revolution “came of age” and outgrew the EU.
Since that moment, American large language models (LLMs) such as Gemini, LLaMA and Claude have become household names. Meanwhile, Chinese competitors are embroiled in what Tencent's CEO has described as a “war of a hundred models”.
The problem with falling behind in this transformative industry is that predictions that the world is about to change forever might just be true - and Europe will not be at the helm.
“The economic and social impact of LLMs might be even larger than the previous phase of AI innovation,” the Commission wrote. “Recommender systems, for instance, might heavily affect what of the internet world users are allowed to see, but they do not seem to massively automate human tasks.
"LLMs, on the contrary, have the potential to do exactly that, in a growing array of tasks and activities that were previously thought to be inaccessible to machines. And even more importantly, the two phases of the AI revolution are intimately linked: in other words, those that successfully mastered the previous one, building a customer base, and massive data and computing infrastructure, have an advantage also in embracing the next phase.”
Competing crises
As Europe slips further behind, it faces a growing “polycrisis” - a term to describe a many-headed, Hydra-like problem. Drawn from the French word polycrise, this unfolding disaster involves a range of interconnected challenges which converge and amplify each other.
The first of this suite of nightmares is the unfortunate fact that AI is made elsewhere but could still replace jobs in Europe.
“Not being part of the frontrunners in AI development has obvious economic impacts and also prevents Europe from shaping the development of AI towards desirable societal goals,” the Commission warned.
The formation of online echo chambers is another issue, particularly because they're not likely to reflect continental values.
“By not having viable European AI platforms, European users must accept cultural and ethical embedding from AI developed in other parts of the world, and this is despite extensive regulatory work,” the Commission continued.
The EU is also unable to guarantee that its notorious regulations can make AI ethical. Big tech is unlikely to hand over the data needed to ensure AI that's aligned with European ethics and is not well-known for following the tight privacy and data protection standards that Brussels prefers.
Big data and huge challenges
The EC described access and control of data as a “critical challenge”, stating that 90% of global data centres are managed by entities outside Europe.
“This situation presents a significant hurdle in the path to leveraging AI effectively and autonomously,” it wrote.
“From a societal perspective, it is clear that the private possession of these huge data sets in the hands of a few big tech giant platform companies will limit the number of possible new AI applications,” the Commission went on.
“Particularly in Europe where… productivity gains in many public sectors have been relatively limited over the past decade, it is essential with ageing and resulting labour shortages to fully exploit more AI opportunities in order to keep those services accessible to the public."
Sectors affected in particular include health, education, public administration, human protection and policing. Public authorities are finding it difficult to address the issue and have "a poor track record in training algorithms for more publicly oriented AI applications.”
The EC described access and control of data as a “critical challenge”, stating that 90% of global data centres are managed by entities outside Europe.
Additionally, supercomputer access could prove to be “the greatest bottleneck”, the Commission said.
And if that wasn't bad enough, Europe is facing the same grim challenges as the rest of the world: climate change, an ageing population, the fertility crisis and escalating geopolitical tensions.
There are certainly signs that Europe is waking from its slumber as President Donald Trump removes the umbrella of military protection that has allowed it to dodge the harsh light of reality for the best part of a century.
France recently broke China’s world record for the longest nuclear fusion reaction. It is also emerging as a centre of quantum innovation and may be able to claw back some lost ground on AI thanks to President Macron’s €109 billion infrastructure investment.
“To change this trajectory, Europe must prioritize building a cohesive AI strategy that leverages its strengths and addresses its weaknesses,” the Commission advised. “The good news is that this is possible but will require a clear vision and unprecedented investments.”
It also called for the establishment of a global "technology observatory" to anticipate future challenges, particularly as AGI looms on the horizon."
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